How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.