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Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he became the fifth consecutive British prime minister to occupy the role in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So what term captures what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in 24 months – three of them in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Key background: from the moment Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, France has had a hung parliament separated into three opposing factions – left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – without any group holding a clear majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and deficit are now almost twice the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the next day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The leader's team announced the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, like his predecessors, finished.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look grim.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his replacement would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”